“The models showed Bill’s path moving dangerously close to the Carolina coast and the Northeast,” according to CNN, “with the best scenario showing the storm turning back to sea before reaching the United States.”

My Garmin GPSmap 5208 documents the position of Hurricane Bill in the following manner.

According to NOAA, Tropical Storm Ana, first named storm  of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, and now TS Bill are strengthening and heading west at approximately the same speed of 16 mph.

TS Ana as of Saturday

Ana, with sustained winds of 40 mph the storm is expected to turn west-northwest over the next few days.

Two related reports from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Even with Atlantic Hurricane predictions lowered, they are warning us not to let our guard down. Perhaps related to this story,  NOAA is also reporting the Warmest Global Ocean Surface Temperatures on Record for July.

In addition to The Hurricane Center, I always check in with my friend Tammie Souza of 10Connects in Tampa, Florida. She is a highly-skilled and passionate meteorologist that I certainly trust.

Great. OK then. El Niño is here. But just what does that mean for those watching for Atlantic hurricanes?

According to the NOAA Website, “El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.” This particular El Niño is predicted to last through the winter of 2010.

“Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side,” according to NOAA, “El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.

“El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niños have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.”

In the USA Today article “El Nino 2 fuels more Atlantic hurricanes, warnings”  by Doyle Rice of USA Today, there are some contrary indications to consider. According to Peter Webster of Georgia Tech’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, “This new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall.”

As with any weather forecast information, and the debate as to its validity, this info is a great staring point for an emergency preparedness discussion. If you live in an area under threat from hurricanes, are you ready with your personal hurricane plan?  Do you have your preparedness gear ready to go?

Don’t worry about El Niño and what it may or may not mean to you. Focus on your plan, your emergency first aid kit and your local weather forecast.

Of course, you can always choose to spend the forecasted hurricane season a couple of miles northwest of Lebanon, Kansas.

MORE 2 EXPLORE

NOAA

USA Today

Though there dozens, if not hundreds of myths that pertain to lightning, thankfully the things you need to know about lightning you can count on one hand. That said, here are the Top 5 suggestions on How To Sidestep Lightning.

1. If you can hear it, it can hurt you. If you hear it, it’s here. Lightning calls out to us, speaking in the language of Thunder, telling us it is on its way.  Remember, thunder is nothing more than the sound the lightning makes as the electrical, super-heated-charge bolts through the air. They are one in the same. NOAA’s “When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!” is a fantastic information resource as well.

2. Lightning reaches out from the storm in a 360 degree circle. Though the clouds that create lightning move in uniform, the electric discharge does NOT return the favor. A strike can travel in advance, in reverse or along side of the Thunderstorm. Just because a storm “has passed” does NOT mean the threat of lightning has passed with it. Lightning has been known to travel over 10 miles to strike.

3. Memorize the “Too Long, Too Soon, Too Late, Too Early” mantra. It is because of point #2 that this rhyme is so important to remember. Many times we wait “too long” to take cover and leave that cover “too soon.”  Many individuals that are struck were “too late” in responding to the impending danger and let there guard down “too early.” Lightning can reach out and touch you whether it is raining or not.

4. Trees are great for shade, lousy for shelter in Thunder Storms. Because lightning travels both vertically and horizontally, fully enclosed buildings (or hard top vehicles with the windows up) offer the best protection while sheds, golf carts, tents, picnic shelters and screened porches do not. Keep away from windows, doors, corded phones, electrical equipment, water pipes, showers and tubs. Each serves as a great conductor of electricity. Lightning has only one goal. Striking!

5. Learn the “Lightning Crouch” to employ as a LAST RESORT. According to the National Lightning Safety Institute, “The Lightning Crouch: Use this only as a last, desperate measure!!  If you’ve made several bad decisions and are outside far away from proper shelter when lightning threatens, proceed to the safest location. Get off the higher elevations, get out of the open fields, get away from tall isolated objects, and get away from water. If lightning is imminent, it will sometimes give a very few seconds of warning. Sometimes your hair will stand-up on end, or your skin will tingle, or light metal objects will vibrate, or you’ll hear a crackling or “kee-kee” sound. If this happens and you’re in a group, spread out so there are several body lengths between each person.” Additionally,  “Once you’ve spread out, use the lightning crouch; put your feet together, squat down, tuck your head, and cover your ears.”

Picture adopting the “fetal position on the balls of your feet” with your heels touching each other, your chest to your knees and your forearms cupping your ears and the back of your head. Fight the urge to lay flat on the ground. Though you are a bit lower, the more your body is in contact with the Earth’s surface, the greater your chances of being victimized by ground and spread lightning.

Thanks to Coyote at  twitter.com/coyotecolorado  for this additional info.

a. Get a weather forecast BEFORE you go.

b. Carry a StrikeAlert device.

c. Seek Shelter.

MORE TO EXPLORE….

NOAA’s Weather Safety PDF on Lightning.

The Top Ten Myths of Lightning Safety.

How Stuff Works.

Tomorrow: Day 2 of the 7 Sins of Summer Safety Week; Neglecting to protect yourself from mosquitoes, ticks and other insects that can spread deadly diseases.

Not unlike ike most emergency situations, you can plan in advance to survive one of the most deadly aspects of violent weather.

Full story and what you can do to survive.

Don’t be drawn to its natural beauty, don’t get killed by its phenomenal current.

“More than 400 people in the U.S. are hit by lightning each year, according to the National Weather Service.” The CNN report continues, “Lightning, on average, kills more people than hurricanes and tornadoes combined (among all weather-related fatalities, only floods kill more).”

Their message, “When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors” is a common sense one in that during the 2008 lightning season, nearly a third (32%) of the 28 people killed last year were beneath a tree when they were struck.

Some quick tips to remember.

Lightning bolts can be hotter than the surface of our Sun.

Lightning can, will and often does strike twice.

In that all thunderstorms produce dangerous lighting, if you can hear it, it can hurt you. I always think of the term “Thunderstruck.”

Lighting can travel 7-10 miles in any direction, regardless of the storm  approaching or departing your area.

Remember the too long, too soon, too late, too early rule. Many people struck by lightning wait to long to take shelter and exit that shelter too soon before it is safe. If you think a storm has passed, give it a full 30 minutes to be sure.

Find shelter. Fully enclosed buildings (or hard top vehicles with the windows up) offer the best protection while sheds, golf carts, tents, picnic shelters and screened porches do not. Keep away from windows, doors, corded phones, electrical equipment, water pipes, showers and tubs. Each serves as a great conductor of electricity.

If you are unable to find shelter, use the “Lightning Crouch” as a last resort. Picture adopting the “fetal position on the balls of your feet” with your heels touching each other,  your chest to your knees and your forearms cupping your ears and the back of your head. Fight the urge to lay flat on the ground. Though you are a bit lower, the more your body is in contact with the Earth’s surface, the greater your chances of being victimized by ground lightning.

NOAA’s Weather Safety PDF on Lightning is a great resource.

The Top Ten Myths of Lightning Safety is another great resource.

Summer brings violent weather. Period. Thunderstorms, lightning strikes, hailstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes,  heat waves and flash flooding are the prices we pay for warm, sunny days. What turns violent weather deadly, most times, is when it catches us unexpectedly. When we are unaware of a forecasted storm, our chances of weathering that storm diminish greatly.

Unfortunately, summertime is, most likely, the time we will be out and about, vacationing, traveling, RVing, boating, cycling and away from our normal shelters and weather media outlets.

Getting caught off guard while your on the road is never smart. Away and unaware is the perfect recipe for misfortune.

One of the pieces of gear I always carry with with me is either my Solarlink FR360 or the Microlink FR150 from the Eton Corporation. These portable, powerful AM/FM/NOAA Weather radios are the perfect solution to getting caught with your guard down. It’s the “smartest” radio I know. My “bad-weather-crystal-ball” I like to say.

In this short video you will learn why it is one of my Top Ten pieces of gear and how to never again worry about the impromptu characteristics of Mother Nature.

For more information on products highlighted in this video, visit EtonCorp.com or CampingWorld.com

According to Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, “Today, more than 35 million Americans live in regions most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes,” and he continued, “Public awareness and public preparedness are the best defenses against a hurricane.”

The NOAA 2009 Official Outlook Summary calls for 9-14 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes, 1-3 major hurricanes.

The computer generated voice announced  “strong thunderstorms approaching, severe levels with large hail, damaging winds and brief, locally heavy rains will be possible.” With the winds picking up and the temperature sliding slightly (by the time the storm hit the temperature dropped a full 30 degrees), I checked the radar and decided to make it another 20 miles or so before pulling over and riding the storm out.

When I hit the parking area just off 40, I cranked my Eton radio one more time to get the final report, “Rain totals could approach one to one and one half inches per hour.” Within seconds the thunder hit and the show began. Huge bolts of crisp, white lightning slammed the ground as thinner fingers of electricity spread across the sky above me. The winds rocked the Mobile Base Camp from side to side as my windshield wipers (at their highest speed) did little to move the rain fast enough for me to see out. Over the next half an hour dozens of cars, trucks and one RV packed into the spaces around me. I finished my Gatorade as the storm subsided.

The first shot at surviving any severe weather, while backpacking, biking, kayaking or RVing is to know that the storm is on the way. With all the features of the Eton Microlink (solar, crank and USB battery rechargeable, AM/FM/Weather Band radio, flashlight, and the amazing cell phone charger) giving me advanced warning of what lies ahead and ample time to prepare is it’s greatest benefit.

The American Red Cross Microlink FR150 and the SolarLink FR360 by Eton absolutely make my pick of Gear To Get. I suspect you may see these innovative pieces of survival gear in one of my upcoming videos on emergency preparedness and survival.